According to forecasts, after the parliamentary elections in Poland, the national conservatives will remain the strongest political force – but three opposition parties could form the new government.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party received 36.8 percent of the vote, according to post-election surveys by the polling institute Ipsos on Sunday evening. The second strongest force with 31.6 percent was the opposition liberal-conservative Citizens’ Coalition (KO) of former Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Election in Poland: The ruling PiS has 200 seats – but the majority is only 231

The forecasts predicted that PiS would gain 200 seats in the new parliament. The majority is 231 of the 460 mandates. Only the ultra-right Konfederacja is possible as a coalition partner. But according to forecasts, this formation only got 6.2 percent – that would be 12 seats and therefore not enough for a government majority. In addition, the Konfederacja had repeatedly emphasized during the election campaign that it did not want an alliance with the PiS.

According to forecasts, the opposition Citizens’ Coalition (KO) would get 163 mandates. It could form a coalition with the Christian-conservative Third Way (13 percent) and the left-wing alliance Lewica (8.6 percent). The three-party alliance would have a total of 248 members and a majority in parliament.

Tusk already sees himself as a winner: “This is the end of the PiS government”

Opposition leader Donald Tusk saw himself as the winner that evening: “I have never been so happy about second place. Poland has won, democracy has won, that is the end of the PiS government,” he said on election evening. PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said they were waiting to see how events unfolded.

The balance of power in parliament can still shift by nuances of a few percentage points for smaller parties. A lengthy government formation is expected.