It is very easy to be pessimistic about Libya’s future in view of the trauma it has been through since February 17th. Certainly listening to some analysts across the plethora of satellite TV news stations you could very easily, as an uninformed outsider, draw the conclusion that Libya’s future looks gloomy.

And since a picture is worth a thousand words, hours of footage showing Freedom Fighters roaming Libya’s streets, the constant sound of gun fire echoing across the cities and dead bodies strewn here there and everywhere - you may have good reason to be cynical.

However, I would like to abstain from this glum forecast and make the case for an alternative and optimistic future for Libya despite the horrendous six months it has been through.

I would like to offer an alternative thesis where the newly liberated Libyans have many good reasons to be cheerful and can for once in their lives dare to dream. Moreover, I would like to go further than that and argue that there is a case for saying that, in the long term, the Libyan revolution may lead to an even rosier future than its neighbours Tunisia or Egypt can expect.

For a start, many an analyst have made the inevitable comparisons with how in Iraq the war was won but the peace was lost. Iraq still suffers power cuts and many basic deficiencies including the general sense of insecurity until today. The sectarian divides have been magnified and have become the factor in its everyday life.

The immediate response to that is that Libya is basically quite a homogenous society. Media analysts as well as Al Qathafi and his followers have made much of the issue of tribalism.

The fact is; Libya has no real deep social fault lines. There are no basic sectarian or religious splits compared to say those found in other Arab countries such as Lebanon, Egypt, Iraq and Syria in varying degrees.

Libya has no Shia, Jewish, Coptic Christian or Kurd minorities. It is - or had been anyway - a moderate Sunni nation.

Tribalism exists, and no doubt once the unity fed by the hatred for the old regime wanes, there will be differences. That is normal and to be expected. But I think they are exaggerated and I hope these will be solved at the ballot box.

Moreover, many Libyans automatically sought refuge within their tribes as a last and only resort as a result of the lack of a democratic, meritocratic, transparent, fair, responsive, efficient regime and government.

Looking at some economic fundamentals, Libya is estimated to have net surplus assets of about US$ 160 billion - most of which are liquid assets according to Farhat Bengdara the former Central Bank of Libya governor. That is a huge contrast to Tunisia or Egypt which have no surpluses to draw upon and provide immediate solutions for problems.

Put crudely, the new Libyan regime has a lot of money to bribe the Libyan populous with – an advantage neither Egypt nor Tunisia can call upon.

Libya still has huge oil and gas reserves - around 3 percent of world reserves - located a stone throw away from Europe. Logistically, and very conveniently, it is estimated that a third of Libya’s production goes the short trip across the Mediterranean to Italy.

Nor did Libya suffer the infrastructure damage Iraq had to endure after its war. Indeed, in a news briefing in Benghazi on the 25th, NTC member Ali Tarhouni, in charge of oil and finance, confirmed that Libya hoped to start oil exports soon, saying that damage to oil installations was much less than feared.

‘Most of the fields are more than 90 percent fine. We can have about 500,000 to 600,000 barrels within two to three weeks. And then we ramp this up to the normal, which is about 1.6 (million). My expectation is that this will be done within a year or so,” he added.

You do the calculations. If these optimistic forecasts come true, five hundred to six hundred thousand barrels a day within weeks at around US$100 a barrel is quite a handy income to have.

This convenient income literally on tap does not exist in neither Egypt nor Tunisia. At 1.6 million barrels per day in a year to 18 months, Libya would be back to earning billions per annum.

Add to this Libya’s relatively small and youthful population of six million and you will get a huge spending power per citizen in the hands of the new Libyan authorities. As I said, any new Libyan authority, if they can just hold things together for a few months and avoid any unexpected bumps on the road - have got a lot of cash to throw at their citizens.

And if you want to be cynical again about the intervention of some of the nations in the Libyan war and say it had nothing to do with issues of humanitarian aid, democracy etc, it does help when the recipient of help has potential not only to help itself in the very short term, but may give something back too. Thank god we have oil, that’s all I want to say.

And finally, there is the case for saying that both Egypt and Tunisia actually experienced a very much shorter, shallower and milder revolution. In effect a publicly inspired military coup, with the old guard and army still very much in site. However, Libya’s revolution was more bloody, deeper longer and more cleansing.

Most of the old guard were removed and the army deconstructed. Indeed, because Al Qathafi was a one man government, getting rid of him has meant that Libya has got rid of the whole old regime in one stroke.

It is for these reasons that I believe that once Libya gets past the very tricky, vulnerable and sensitive transition stage in the first few months, it indeed has a better chance of making a clean break with the past and look forward to starting a new and bright future.

For Libyans there are many reasons to be cheerful and they can dare to dream.

Sami Zaptia – samizaptia@knowlibya.net