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Friday, 3 September, 2010, 1:40 ( 23:40 GMT )
Editorial/OP-ED




Opinion: Libya's Credit Rating: Great News for Investment
By Sami Zaptia
28/03/2009 22:10:00
The news that Libya is to receive its first ever investment grade sovereign credit rating last week is great news for future foreign investment possibilities into Libya.

Its great news in that now Libya will appear on many investment institutions' and their analysts' radars for the first time ever. Up to now many top international investment institutions were not even able to consider Libya as an investment destination or opportunity simply by the fact that it did not have a credit rating.

Many analysts looking for countries to invest in on the basis of credit risk. Analysts assessing a loan or investment in Libya would not approve an investment into Libya because the lack of a credit rating makes calculating the investment risk more difficult - and hence riskier

These institutions are very much accountable to their shareholders and boards of directors and have to show due process of how investment decisions were made. One means of supporting any investment decision would be to consider an internationally accepted credit rating.

Historically, this lack of a credit rating has meant that Libya has been missing out on much investment opportunities and hence its growth and development has been stifled. It was only the risk averse and those who knew the Libyan market better or at first hand that were prepared to invest in Libya.

Equally, while getting foreign investors to invest in Libya's oil and gas sector has never been a problem in the past, as that is seen as a very safe and reliable sector to invest in, the same could not be said for other sectors.

Obtaining this credit rating will make attracting investors into other non-oil and gas sectors much easier. This is fantastic news for Libya's aim to diversify its economy and attract foreign direct investment in other sectors such as tourism, construction etc.

The cost of loans for investing in Libya should also go down thanks to the new credit rating. So if you think that there has been an investment boom in Libya prior to obtaining this rating, I expect investors to be queuing now to get into Libya. This new credit rating sends a good and load signal to investors all over the world to consider investing in Libya.

However, the other side of the coin is that now that Libya is on international investors' radar, so to speak, Libya would not want the headline that its investment rating has been downgraded. Libya can no longer afford to ignore the business and investment environment. It must start to pro-actively accelerate the improvement of the Libyan business environment.

Remember we are now talking about the so-called big institutional investors and project financiers that are commercial organisations floated on the world's stock markets. Their prices move up and down on a daily basis based on facts and perceptions, as to their anticipated profitability.

The markets and market sentiment reacts negatively to any news that might affect the profitability of any institution or company floated on a stock exchange. Markets do not like environments where it is hard to do business.

They do not like business environments - or nations – where there is reduced business transparency or accountability. They are also very averse to markets where decisions are very changeable and there is a tendency to change everyday business procedures, processes and business regulations.

In short, markets and their investors like stability in the business environment in which they invest or are likely to invest. They like to see strong private sectors in the market place and they like to see business friendly and non-interfering administrations.

Therefore, I hope that Libya, having worked very hard to gain this important credit rating, works just as hard not only at maintaining it, but at also improving its rating. This is a great milestone for Libya's rehabilitation and reintegration into the international economy. It sends the right signal to the world that Libya is truly open for business.

One must here commend the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) and the outgoing General Secretary for Economy for helping Libya achieve this credit rating. I hope the CBL and the new General Secretary for the GPC for Economy not only continue this reforming trend, but also accelerate it.
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